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Section Two
Are we Near the End of Our Current Temperature Rise?
donald@dialup4less.com |
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What's New on this Global Warming Site:
Section Two - Chart One: Global Temperatures - Month by Month
NASA's Land-Ocean Global Temperature Readings for the entire Planet. The last point on the plot is August of 2009.
Global temperatures seem to be at the top of the current up flucuation. They may go higher or they may start their decline towards the next Little Ice Age - time will tell. I constructed this new chart so that we may follow month by month whatever path global temperature will take. The letters on the chart refer to the following:
(A) This is the highest peak so far of the current up fluctuation of temperature and it happened in January of 2007 AD.
(B) This is the sixth highest and first up fluctuation of the current Interglacial Warm Period - at 58.66šF in 9191 BC.
(C) This is the highest up fluctuation of the current Interglacial Warm Period - at 60.91šF in 6135 BC.
(D) This is the fourth highest up fluctuation at 59.23šF in 2423 BC
(E) This is the third highest up fluctuation at 59.29šF in 291 BC.
(F) This is the second highest up fluctuation at 59.59šF in 1603 AD and is known as the Medieval Warm Spell
(G) This is the fifth highest up fluctuation and it happened in January of 2007 - it is the same peak as marked by (A).
The BC to AD time scale on the top of this chart is for all the red peaks listed as B, C, D, E, F, & G.
The years 2006 to 2014 time scale on the bottom of this chart is for the month by month plot in black.
The vertical temperature scale on the left is for all plots on the chart. In this way we can compare current temperatures with past temperature peaks.
Section Two - Chart Two: Overview Chart from 1880 to present year
The lower plot on this chart is 128 years of Global Temperatures from 1880 AD to the present year of 2009. The time scale on the bottom is only for this lower plot. Each vertical line in the plot is one year and its length covers the total range of temperatures for the twelve months of that year, except for the current year, which is only for the months so far recorded in the current year. The highest peak was in January of 2007 at 58.80šF, a rise of 4.91šF since the low of 1766 AD. This 2007 peak is higher than most of the 34 peaks that have occurred in the first twelve thousand years of our current ongoing Interglacial Warm Period, but it is not the highest, it is only fifth highest. The following years had higher peaks: 1603 AD, 291 BC, 2423 BC, and the highest in 6135 BC.
In the upper part of this chart I show some of the past peaks of temperature including the four highest. The time scale at the top is for these past peaks. The vertical temperature scale is for both plots, the upper past peaks and the latest year by year plot. By using the same temperature scale, I am able to clearly show you the true position of the 2007 high peak in relation to the highest past peaks. A combined land and ocean data set is best to use when comparing current readings to past ice core readings.
Our recent rise in temperature needs to rise up to sixty-one degrees before it can be called the highest temperature in our Interglacial Warm Period, that would make it the highest temperature in more than one hundred thousand years, but as of now, the rise of temperature is normal and natural and does not show any indication of rising above the sixty-one degree level
I repeat what is happening: For more than eleven thousand years the mean temperature of this planet has been going sideways while wandering up and down in a range between 54š and 60šF. The highest high was 60.91šF in 6135 BC. After that, temperatures pulled back and never returned to the sixty degree area. There have been about 34 ups and 33 downs in the last eleven thousand years. Each up or down movement takes one to three hundred years. This last up movement in temperature started in 1766 AD at a recorded low temperature of 53.89šF degrees. In the last 240 years temperatures have been working their way up. We are due for a change in direction - we are due for down movement number 34, this is a normal expectation.
This change in direction may happen in our time, if so it would not be the first time that humans were present when temperatures changed directions, but this will be the first time that we would get a good record of the change. I for one am curious as to what shape the top of the temperature peak will take, I will be watching, month by month and plotting the change here on these charts so you too can see the top of the current temperature peak as it forms.
The two charts above contain temperature readings from NASA's GHCH 1880 to present Global Land-Ocean Temperature data set at the following link:
The two charts below use two Hadley Observatory data sets on each chart, land only CRUTEM3 and sea surface temperature hadsst2.
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadsst2/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/monthly
The Hadley Land readings reached a peak in February of 1998, almost nine years before the NASA Land-Ocean readings reached its peak in January of 2007. This is what I want, to see these benchmarks of change as soon as possible.
Section Two - Chart Three: The Years 1997 to 2009 with room for 2010
Since 1998, temperatures seem to be going sideways, but it has only been a few years, time will tell if 1998 is the end of the current rise in temperature. We should know sometime within the next forty years. I hope that the change will come sooner rather than later, the sooner it comes the sooner the Carbon Climate Clowns will be exposed.
We can watch month by month as this little drama unfolds before our eyes, it won't take long, that is, not long in global time. Each month there will be another monthly reading available for us to add to the chart. It may take years and years, but somewhere along the way we will see and know that temperatures are going down - they will wait for no man, not even Al Gore - the Temperature Fluctuation Show must go on.
Section One What's happening now with Global Temperatures and Carbon Dioxide - Plotting
Section Two Are we near the end of our current temperature rise?
Section Three Five Global Warmings in 420,000 Years
Section Four Nineteen Thousand years of our current Global Warming
Section Five The final chart and word on Global Warming
Section Six Wrap Up on Global Warming
December 24, 2007 - Al Gore, the Benedict Arnold of our time - the traitor among us.
October 30, 2007 - The 8000 Year Footprint of Man-Made Carbon Dioxide:
October 15, 2007 - Letters to National Geographic Magazine My comments on the Global Warming stand of National Geographic they presented on their insert in the October 2007 issue.
February 25, 2007 - Hockey Stick Chart
The Fabrication of Global Warming Evidence
August 18, 2006 - Hurricanes The Global Cooling of Global Warming by Storms:
May 27, 2006 - Al Gore He's Back with a new book, a movie, a website, a lecture tour, and of course, the infamous Hockey Stick Chart.
May 02, 2006 - NOVA/PBS The Credibility of NOVA & PBS is at Stake.
April 16, 2006 - Sanity Public doesn't warm to the doom and gloom of the Carbon Global Warming Clowns.
Use of the Hadley data sets:
Complete List of Global Warming Related Files:
Temperature and Carbon Dioxide Together:
Editorial from 12/15/07: 'Gore's warming plan will blister U.S.' by Nolan Finley, editorial page editor of The Detroit News
The addition of the plot of carbon dioxide to the Interglacial Chart reveals the 8000 year footprint of rising man-made carbon dioxide.
Cane Mutiny - The Mutiny of the Hurricanes due to cooler oceans
A new scientific article now accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters shows that the globally averaged upper ocean cooled dramatically between 2003 and 2005, effectively erasing 20% of the warming that occurred over the previous 48 years! - Cooler Oceans Mean a Cooler Planet.
Acknowledgments:
Raynere,N.A., P.Brohan, D.E.Parker, C.K..Folland, J.J.Kennedy, M.Vanicek, T.Ansell, and S.F.B.Tett 2006: Improved analyses of changes and uncertainties in sea surface temperature measured in situ since the mid-nineteenth century: the HadSST2 data set Journal of Climate. 19(3) pp. 446-469 (Copyright 2006 AMS)